BGs giving a rest after a thousand years plan? I don't think so...

Dune is one of my favorite books too, but i haven't had your motivation.

The question "why not a female Harkonnen with a male Atreides?" got my mind moving. We like to think that half of our genetic material comes from each of our parents, but that's not true. Our mitochondrial DNA only comes from our mothers. Alia, Paul, and Jessica share the same source for their mitochondrial DNA: the BG witch who bedded the Baron (You gotta feel sorry for her!). The planned Kwisatz should have gotten his mitochondrial DNA through Alia. It certainly can't be the mitochondrial DNA alone.

What about the X chromosome? Jessica got one of her X chromosomes from Baron Harkonnen. Alia got one of her X chromosomes from Jessica and one from Leto. That only gives a 50% chance of Alia getting the Baron's X chromosome, unless Leto had the same source of X chromosome as did the Baron. But even if Leto and Vladimir had the same mother, this works out to 50%. And what about the Y chromosome? Feyd had Vladimir's brother's Y chromosome which is exactly the same as the Baron's, if they both had the same father. Inbreeding royal families is common and obviously the BG had no problem helping the inbreeding along. But the math gets nasty. I'm sure any Mentat Initiate could work it out.

I would assume both the Harkonnen and Atreides lines had been primed for a Kwisatz Haderach long ago (the former line had been watched longer for than the latter, interestingly enough). So the probabilities were likely different than simple genetics would imply. And these families weren't the only options, it was noted Hasimir Fenring was an almost-Kwisatz Haderach, though since he was sterile, he was useless for the BG. Interestingly the genetics made him apparently invisible in prescience though seemingly without giving him any prescient ability.

It seems quite possible to me that whatever genes a Kwisatz Haderach needs are not tied to one chromosome, mitochondria or even necessarily sex-linked: remember Alia implicitly has weird abilities Paul does not, such as an ability to "walk the future and leave messages for Paul", though she evidently doesn't have Paul's abilities. And Paul doesn't seem to have access to Other Memory, weirdly enough, while both Ghanima and Leto II have full access to both maternal and paternal Other Memory.

Since the BG can manipulate their internal chemistry, it seems possible they could choose quite specific combination of gametes at least if they are full Reverend Mothers (implicitly initiates but not full RMs can at least choose sex of their child), further altering probabilities.

Dune Messiah notes that for the BG, need for proper conception goes deeper than proscription against artificial conception, that they "aimed to capture the psyche". This statement is not clarified though, but it does imply they actively mess with odds in some way.

This actually makes me wonder if this is one reason Jessica didn't bear a daughter soon after Paul, as her love for Leto would likely alter her perception of Leto and therefore also this "capturing the psyche" and this could mean any daughter would not be right for the BG program at that point. Perhaps Jessica knew that and that's why she never did it? Evidently later on the BG's would prefer to have any Atreides available...

One might wonder why the BG didn't immediately send her order to also bear a daughter but it may be they ended up evaluation other options at that point, and given that humans don't grow particularly fast, this process might've taken years, and only much later they decided that "OK, this had been a huge mistake, let's go test Paul and poke Jessica".

Another thing to keep in mind is that the BG's breeding program doesn't seem to be particularly public. (Publicly they seem to be a sort-of monastic, educational institution that most importantly for the Imperium produces Truthsayers.) They can't interfere too much or people start suspect something's up. Mohiam tries to get Paul to shut up when he talks about the BG plans where the Emperor's court could hear, and long before that Mohiam seemingly manipulated Paul, probably with the Voice, so that he could not talk too much about his meeting with Mohiam at that time.

I just love all that. thanks.

Is there any indication that Herbert considered all this stuff? Or did he just record the history without deep consideration of some of the implications?

It seems clear that the Bene Gesserit blew it badly in their breeding program. They had too much riding on too little. House Atreides had too few people in it. One accident and bye bye. Or did they have a lot of the lines moving simultaneously toward the Kwisatz?

This discussion (which i find really interesting) reminds me of a statement by the great astronomer Johan Kepler that scientific discovery is "thinking God's thoughts after Him." We look at the apparently missing pieces of Frank Herbert's history and try to glean what he was thinking, discovering the truth hidden in there. Frank Herbert is god of the Duniverse. Or maybe, it's more like evolution, where we only think we see design and Frank Herbert was just writing a bit haphazardly, like random changes in the genome.

On topic proper, very early on in Children of Dune says of Jessica: "... she produced a son instead of the daughter which the Sisterhood had commanded as the firstborn". Emphasis added. This makes me think birth order certainly mattered to the Bene Gesserit breeding program in some way.

Also Dune Messiah says, in the same scene i referred to earlier, the one where Paul "bargains" with Mohiam: "This coin might save the Atreides genes for the Sisterhood, but it would not never buy a throne". I think this does indicate their plans certainly included getting a Bene Gesserit, ie the Kwisatz Haderach, to the throne.

About Herbert's writing:

There certainly is an element of haphazardness to Herbert's writing. While there are changes that are most likely deliberate (eg spelling of Holtzman, just like planet names got shortened or changed), there are things that seem to be errors, or perhaps even just results of not thinking things through.

In Dune, the Bashar (Colonel) is a lower rank than Burseg (General) while in Children of Dune Bashar is mentioned as a higher rank. Most likely an error, as this was probably the only sentence after Dune where the rank of Burseg was even mentioned.

In the original trilogy, there's no indication Duncan Idaho was born on Giedi Prime or having been Harkonnen slave or anything like that, indeed beyond Duncan being a Swordmaster of Ginaz and killing some Harkonnens on Grumman, there's no details about his past. But in Heretics of Dune, Duncan's backstory becomes eerily similar to Gurney Halleck's, which makes me wonder if Herbert actually forgot and conflated the two characters to some extent. (Cut Dune material actually indicates Duncan had been longer in Atreides service and as the one who trained Gurney but this doesn't mesh too well with later stuff.)

But take this with a grain of salt, it has been some time since i read Heretics and Chapterhouse. They are next on my list though, once i finish Children of Dune (i've apparently lost my copy of God Emperor of Dune).

Some event timings and character ages seem somewhat inconsistent. For example, Anirul Corrino dies in 10176 according to Appendix IV but Irulan's book quotations make it clear she was alive in 10191-92 at very least. And Shaddam's age doesn't match what the same appendix claims.

These are a big enough mess i'm actually in process of sorting stuff out, will write about them once i'm finished with Children of Dune.

A big weird thing in Dune is the question when the spice melange was discovered. Dune implies it is a relatively recent discovery (and even more so in its cut material!), yet the Guild navigators and history stretching back over 10 000 years sort of implies it is much older stuff. (But the Guild navigators could have used other awareness-spectrum narcotics before the spice, it is just that the spice was the best and after it was used, others no longer worked.)

I think Herbert was more of a "architect" (the type who plans stuff) writer than a "gardener" (goes with whatever pops their mind). But one cannot be certain.

I loved Chapterhouse Dune. Switching to the Bene Geseritt point of view was so fantastic. I look forward to getting to it in my latest readings.

I'd assumed that spice was the only substance that would allow for faster than light travel. This meant that Dune was discovered using something like standard rocket ships. Is there any hint that there was another substance?

You definitely give me stuff to think about as I read the books.

So, i take it that you've Dune 30 times but the later books, not so many.

Yeah, i've read the sequels way less. Several times each though. And despite not liking them much, i've read all the BH/KJA books few times too, mostly when i was younger, nowadays i just can't anymore, too critical of them.

Regarding FTL and spice, ignoring non-Herbert stuff, few things to consider.

Pre-Butlerian Jihand, there must've been FTL travel available, because of the comparatively short duration of the Jihad and the size of the human space (STL travel would cap out at just under 1LY of distance per year at most, and Dune's planets can be as far away as at least 300LY from Earth).

Space travel was noted to be uncertain at these times though. Logical assumption would be same type of FTL as the Guild uses ("foldspace") but with computerized navigation though not on the level of later Ixian navigation machines. Regardless of the means, this is almost certainly before the discovery of spice.

The problem with "early spice" is that Dune has strong indications the spice is a relatively recent discovery.

Consider the existence of Imperial Biological Testing Stations, dating from "Old Imperium", implicitly predating the discovery of spice. If the spice was discovered before the Guild, this would make these stations over 10 000 years old. Consider the condition of the Egyptian Pyramids, constructed merely about 5000 years ago, or other old ruins. Between Arrakis' harsh environment, far harsher than what Egypt has, and general sophistication of technological places compared to simple rock piles pyramids here are, it seems unlikely the bases would be still around*. While the Landsraad predates the Guild by 2000 years per Appendix II, it is unclear if it was an Imperium. If it wasn't, the Old Imperium probably isn't referring to this time.

The properties of the spice itself are somewhat unknown, it is known to be addictive but it seems to be a surprise its withdrawal is fatal. How is it that within 10 000 years these haven't been explored or realized? Even with the relative stasis the Imperium dwells in, this seems unlikely because the spice is important and knowledge about it could be powerful. 100 years or so would be far more believable if stretching it from modern point of view though understandable without lack of modern methods of studying substances.

And it seems Pardot Kynes was the first Planetologist appointed to Arrakis, which would've happened perhaps 60-70 years ago (the Harkonnen had Arrakis as their fief since circa 10110, as they've been there for 80 years). If spice and Arrakis are 10 000 year things, why only now is there a Planetologist?

Cut material is even more indicative, as some cut chapters and scenes explore more of the spice's mysteries, such as its claimed geriatric properties, and one scene outright notes that the discover was done by scientists working under Pardot Kynes (though this is contradicted by Dune's Appendix I).

*Granted, with proper engineering and advanced materials making something last 10000 years probably isn't impossible. It just feels unlikely, for most purposes that would be massive overengineering and waste of money and resources.

Then there's that the Bene Gesserit and Fremen are noted to have used other awareness-spectrum narcotics (for Reverend Mothers and other feats) before the spice essence. The Fremen developed theirs to the best they could when they were slaves on Rossak, well before the discover of the Water of Life. The Bene Gesserit are implicitly formed around the Butlerian Jihad. If they had spice then, why would they ever have needed other substances?

The spice prevents other drugs from working for this. To be sure, the BG could skip the spice and use other means, but given the availability and potency of the spice, those would be inferior (and any spice afterward would likely rob them from their effects).

Finally, the Guild is noted to be one of the Great Schools after the Butlerian Jihad, that focused on development of human abilities. Mohiam says the Guild focuses on mathematics. To me, it seems one would need sophisticated math for FTL travel perhaps, for prediction, for calculations, especially since it seems unlikely the Imperium has much need for advanced mathematics. The Guild navigators are noted to be "dealing with higher dimensions", which kinda feels like it could mean weird geometry, relativity etc. stuff that involves mathematics very much. In the context this was about prescience perhaps, but mathematically modelling that would probably need complex mathematics.

Also i swear there was a passage somewhere, where i can't recall, that noted that the Guild too could've used other substances for navigation trance before using the spice but afterwards they can't anymore.

This all points toward to the spice being relatively recent discovery, and as a result requires the Guild have used some other means for guiding FTL travel before the spice.

Of course, "late spice" is not without its problems. Heretics of Dune makes it clear there would be no Bene Gesserit without the spice, which indicates they're equally old (also making the 300-year lifespan tricky).

"Late spice" also raises questions: what is the Old Imperium? The Corrinos are said to have been on the Throne since the Battle of Corrin in 88 BG. Was the Imperium reformed at some point, hence Old and current Imperiums? When was the Arrakis settled? When exactly was the spice discovered?

There have been 81 Padishah Emperors. Assuming this means in since 88 BG, an average emperor ruled for about 126 years each, which is a ridiculously long time for a human. And it is actually worse, because this being average, there have been emperors who may have ruled for far longer time. Dune has no indications human lifespans are particularly longer than currently, if at all, with the spice being noted as adding years, perhaps decades to that. It might be that spice extends youth more so than actual lifespan, as Shaddam IV looked about 35 when he was 72, as the Emperor he certainly could afford heavy use of the spice.

If there has been a reformation, perhaps there are only 81 Padishah Emperors in the current Imperium, while the Old one has had who knows how many. Depending on when this happened, we could get average ruling period to reasonable level. And it could explain the title of "First Imperial Planetologist" because while the planet had evidently been studied during the time of the Old Imperium, the current system is a new one, hence first.

Heretics of Dune gives human lifespan as over 300 years, though it is uncertain if this is because of the spice (which would mean the Lost Ones would not live as long as they have no spice) or if there are other means of extending life. (I wonder if the BG have bred humans to live longer and these genes have spread across humanity.)

Incidentally if the spice was a late discovery, this would explain why there are no 300-year old humans in Dune, as no post-spice human would've had time to reach that age.

This all said, Herbert originally clearly planned the spice to be a newish thing, but eventually changed his mind, leaving a ton of problems.

As it is, i wish i could remove 9000 years of the timeline. If it was the year 1191 instead of 10191, stuff would make more sense...

I should compile my thoughts on subjects and make blog posts of them at this rate...

EDIT I figured i'd answer shortly to your question. That is clearly impossible for me lol

Your posts are so good, every time.

I confirmed your calculation: 10175 / 81 = 126

That's just how long each emperor ruled, not his lifespan. You gotta tack on another bunch of years.

It seems ridiculous to think that one family could rule for 10,000 years. The Roman Empire lasted 1000 years and it wasn't ruled by a single dynasty. The more disperse the empire, the harder it would be to control. Which is why you need a death star. "Fear will keep the local systems in line."

If I wasn't so confident in Princess Irulan's accounts, I'd think the 10,000 years were just pulled out of the dark side.